Playing 54, to split or not?

Last time I promised a shorter analysis, so here it is.
Today we'll discuss only one problem, also from the opening phase of the game, but it is regularly misplayed.

I encourage you to write your opinions about positions, questions about my analysis, etc.
By writing your opinion before seeing analysis you will sharpen your game; posting questions about analysis will help me to know on what should I concentrate while writing, where to put more or less effort in explanation, etc.

So here we go:



As some of you noticed, our position is reached after you played 31: 8/5 6/5 and your opponent played 55: 13/3(2).

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 147

Unlimited Game Beaver

pip: 163 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-b---BD-B---cE---c-e--b-B-:0:0:1:54:0:0:2:0:10

to play 54

It is important to notice this position is different than sequence where your opponent had 53 to play on previous roll.

Let's look at the key differences:




First thing (1) to notice is the difference in pip count. In the left position, black has advanced for 20 pips, in the right position for only 8 pips. In the left position you're more behind in the race.
Second thing (2) to notice is the difference in spare distribution. In the right position, black has stripped 8pt; in the left position he has a spare checker on 8pt. If he attacks from 8pt, he will still retain his 8pt in the left position.
Third thing (3) to notice is ten checkers in the attacking zone with stacked 6pt screaming to get unstacked in the left position; versus only eight checkers in the zone and already unstacked 6pt in the right position.

Putting (2) and (3) together - black is eager to attack your back checkers if you split them, converting this game to a blitz.
Having (1) in mind - when behind in the race, you have more chance for a successful priming game, trying to contain black's back checkers.

The play that both doesn't give your opponent chance to attack and raises your priming potential is 13/8 13/9 and it is correct by a wide margin:

1.	3-ply	13/9 13/8	eq: +0,168
	Player: Opponent: 54,38% (G:16,91% B:0,74%) 45,62% (G:13,74% B:0,80%)
2.	3-ply	24/20 13/8	eq: +0,083 (-0,084)
	Player: Opponent: 53,05% (G:14,98% B:0,77%) 46,95% (G:15,50% B:0,49%)
3.	3-ply	13/4	eq: +0,046 (-0,122)
	Player: Opponent: 51,75% (G:15,48% B:0,65%) 48,25% (G:15,49% B:1,06%)
4.	3-ply	24/15	eq: +0,024 (-0,143)
	Player: Opponent: 52,36% (G:13,41% B:0,67%) 47,64% (G:17,07% B:0,51%)

In the right position, splitting with 24/20 13/8 is correct. You're no longer under such attacking threat and you're not behind in the race, so making an advanced anchor on 20pt should be one of your game plans.

When your opponent uses his spare checker from 8pt to make home board point on his first roll, it is a right time to split, while his 8pt is stripped (without spare checkers).
When he makes a home board point with 55 or 44 and brings new attackers from the midpoint while keeping the spare checker on the 8pt - splitting is too dangerous and you should avoid it.

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This week I had a question "How should I know when to double?" so next couple of posts will be about doubling - we'll start from some simple positions covering doubling basics and we'll continue to some more complex positions.

The next time we'll discuss this position:

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111

Unlimited Game Beaver

pip: 100 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=----BCD-CB-Ac---ab-dcb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:2:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Would you double here? Would you take as black? How sure are you in your decisions?

For more experienced players: You're leading 1-0 in a 3pt match. Would you double this and would you take this as black? How sure are you in your decisions?

(Please say in a comment if you're answering to the main question or the question for more experienced players. Or you can try to answer both questions)