Analysis of the 44 position

First of all, thank you all for the great feedback!

I hope you won't be disappointed with my analysis. As this is the first time I'm doing this, I would appreciate your comments on the analysis – what did you like and, more importantly, what you didn't like and what would you like to change (more variants, deeper analysis, shorter analysis, explanation of some stuff I didn't explain, etc.).

If you are new here, I recommend you to first read previous post before reading any further.



So here is our position once again:

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 162

Unlimited Game

pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=-a--a-E-C---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

to play 44

Only three candidate moves (three best ones) were chosen by readers:
- 24/20(2) 13/9(2)
- 24/20(2) 8/4*(2)
- 8/4*(2) 6/2(2)

Most votes were for making 20pt and 9pt. I find that not surprising, as this is the best move in most second roll positions where you have 44 to play. But not in this position. Let's see why.

Backgammon players know advanced anchor (made point on your 21pt or 20pt) is important, but usually underestimate how important it is.
Advanced anchor protects you against blitz, as you cannot be closed out, and protects you against prime, as primes in outer board are not as effective as primes which include home board points.
Once you have the advanced anchor, you can concentrate on other parts of the board and you can play more freely knowing you have a safe defensive point.

One of the goals in early game is securing the advanced anchor. And if you look from your opponent's perspective - you want to stop him in his tries to make his advanced anchor.

In our position, he has split his back checkers with 3, 24/21. That means he's only half a roll (one die needed) away from making his 21pt anchor.
If you play "usual 44 move", making 20pt and 9pt, he has all 3's, 21 and 11 to make 21pt, and 41 to make 20pt. That's 16 of 36 rolls (Do you know how to calculate this? Should I explain it in a new post?), after which both you and him will have an advanced anchor - you cannot prime him nor blitz him anymore.


Once your opponent has split to his 21pt or 20pt, don't let him make his advanced anchor! Attack the blot on 4pt or 5pt!


Exercise 1:
Take a look at the original position once again and instead of 44 give yourself any roll containing 2 or 4 - numbers which could hit his checker on 4pt.
Except for 11, 22 and 42, all other rolls could hit but you cannot make a point, so if you hit on 4pt, you're leaving a blot he could hit from a bar and send your third checker back.
Would you hit in those positions? In all, in none, in some of them (which one: 21, 41, 32, 52, 62, 43, 54)?

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We are still at our original position, we eliminated 24/20(2) 13/9(2), and now we have two candidates left which both include hitting on 4pt.

Here is the situation after playing 8/4*(2) and now we have the other half of the move to play:

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166

Unlimited Game

pip: 159 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=aa--B-E-A---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

to play 44 (only two 4's)

We must decide between 24/20(2) and 6/2(2).

With 6/2(2) we're closing the third home board point, meaning your opponent will stay on bar 25% of the time (9/36 rolls).

Tip: To calculate the number of rolls which do not enter from bar, just calculate the number of your home board points and square that number.
For 1 point board only one roll doesn't enter; for 2 point board four rolls don't enter; 3pt nine rolls; 4pt sixteen rolls; 5pt twenty-five rolls.

If you make 2pt, you have committed yourself to a blitzing game. But you have only two checkers (third on 6pt and the one on 8pt) who are ready to make new points in your home board, and you can hit the other blot only with 64.
Even if your opponent dances (stays on the bar), you're not ready to launch a powerful blitz.

You are in an even bigger problem if he enters from the bar (36-9 = 27 rolls that do that, 75% of the time) as with most of his rolls he will either make a defensive anchor or cover his 11pt blot.



Now let's consider the other candidate move - 24/20(2).

Now you have only two points in your home board so your opponent will enter easily. (Try to calculate how many rolls is that!)
But, on the plus side, you've made an advanced anchor. And we know how important an advanced anchor is, and what it gives to you and what it takes away from your opponent.

Take a look at the position after you have played 24/20(2) 8/4*(2):

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166

Unlimited Game

pip: 151 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=aa--B-E-A---dEa--c-eB-----:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Let's see how some of your opponent's rolls play for him:
With [66, 64, 44] he stays on a bar, but even sixes and fours that enter are not very good for him:
65 - he plays bar/14 or bar/20 24/18, leaving a blot on his 11pt and another one in your outfield
63 and 61 - again he must leave two exposed blots
41 - bar/20 - blot on 11pt and 20pt
42 and 43 - he enters and moves 11/7, again leaving a blot
And some other numbers are also ugly: 51, 31, 11.

In total, there are 21 rolls (every non-double is counted as two rolls, for example: 51 and 15, 31 and 13, etc.) that either not enter or enter and leave many blots.

Also, you're not committed to a blitzing game anymore, as from here you can play any type of game, depending on what will happen in the next rolls.
That leaves you with many different ways you could win this game.

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To conclude:

In this position, playing "regular 44 move" 24/20(2) 13/9(2) is a blunder as you give your opponent many rolls that make his advanced anchor.

You must stop him by hitting with 8/4*(2) and decide between [A] 24/20(2) and [B] 6/2(2).
Play [B] commits you to play a blitz in a position where you are not yet prepared for powerful blitz.
Play [A] is not committing (you can play all types of games), advanced anchor is more useful than the 2pt, and your position is very solid.

Correct move:
24/20(2) 8/4*(2)

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Exercise 2:
Let's say you have played 8/4*(2) 6/2(2) and your opponent dances. We reach this position:

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166

Unlimited Game

pip: 151 score: 0 is Player 1

XGID=aaB-B-C-A---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

2.1. Would you double in this position? Is this take or pass? How sure are you in doubling and taking decisions?
2.2. You are now in a blitz mode and your game plan is to keep your opponent on a bar as long as possible. What would you play with: 33, 44, 65?



Before next time, try to answer to the Exercises 1 and 2. (And feel free to criticize my analysis and say what you would like to see improved)